Fortune tellers and psychics have thrilled and mystified people with their ability to give insights into the future. One of the classic props used is a crystal ball into which they stare intently and issue their pronouncements. It's not unusual for the amazed patron to leave convinced of the accuracy of their prophecy. In most cases the explanation for their delphi-like performance is much more mundane.
While in Iraq, Senator Obama was asked 3 different times if knowing what he now knows about the current situation he would change his vote and support the surge? While admitting that the situation has improved. In each instance he said he would not change his vote and refused to credit the surge strategy opining that the real reason for the progress was due to the Sunni Awakening and other factors. He went on to say he didn't have a crystal ball and that no one could have predicted the positive outcome.
When Senator McCain actively lobbied the Bush administration to send more troops and more importantly change strategies, he was met with resistance from both sides of the aisle. He steadfastly maintained that a surge was the only way to turn the tide and allow the Iraqi government the breathing room to reach political stability. It is not an overstatement to point out that he staked his career on this effort. In an uncharacteristic statement he proclaimed he would, "rather lose an election and win a war."
The Sunni Awakening and the capitulation of Muqtad Al Sadr was credited at the time to the trust of the tribal leaders that the Americans were committed to stay engaged for the long haul. To disconnect these breakthroughs is imply historically incorrect.
Sen. Obama must, by his own statements believe that Sen. McCain is in possession of a crystal ball. The more likely answer is, of course, much simpler. McCain has the experience of war. He has studied war while at Annapolis. Even more telling is he knows through his Viet Nam experience what doesn't work. In retrospect he just looks prophetic.
The Edge
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